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Comp groups and Daily schedule of events
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TOPIC: Comp groups and Daily schedule of events

Comp groups and Daily schedule of events 5 years, 3 months ago #39

  • mimi
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Hi and happy New Year!
Wondering when we'll know the comp groups and daily schedule of events at Nationals 2009 so we can make work plans and lodging reservations.
Thanks,
mimi
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Re:Comp groups and Daily schedule of events 5 years, 2 months ago #46

  • jason
Jon Casson and I are currently crunching numbers and working out competition groups/days and slots for Nationals.

This is a VERY complex and involved process with lots of variables to consider. Many of the numbers we need to come up with this are still unknown so much of what we are doing is using best guesses. To give an idea of how we come up with the numbers, for starters we factor in the overall number of members competing in each age group per discipline.

This is the toughest one because it is the middle of the season and many series haven't even held a Slopestyle, BX or Halfpipe event yet. So trying to figure out how many Youth Men there are in the country this year that compete in Slopestyle in tough to know until the end of the season. That isn't an option, so we have to base some of it off of last years numbers and hope we guess right.

We were really close last year and want to be as close or better this year, so we are gathering the data needed to make it as good as we can.

Please be patient, we hope to have everything finalized by Friday, February 13th.

You can definitely assume that the competition groups/days will NOT be the same as last year.
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Re:Comp groups and Daily schedule of events 5 years, 2 months ago #71

  • jason
The schedule, competition groups and available slots are now posted on the USASA website.

Look under the Nationals tab: 2009 Nationals: Comp Groups/Days.
Last Edit: 5 years, 2 months ago by .
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Re:Comp groups and Daily schedule of events 5 years, 2 months ago #72

  • joncasson
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Hello USASA Riders and Families-

The slots and schedule for the 2009 USASA National Championships are now posted so I'd like to take this opportunity to offer some insight into how Jason and I come up with slot numbers. Its a difficult process involving the analysis of several sets of data. We start the process with a couple of "rules".

Rule #1- We have to operate under the assumption that every series MIGHT have a regional series winner. We have to have enough room to accommodate those riders first before we start factoring National Rankings into the mix. We also need to make sure that we have slots for the previous years Individual National Champions and Overall Champions. There are 33 regional series in the US, so we have to work under the idea that we may have 36 "mandatory" slots. Now you might notice that several age/gender/disciplines have less than 35 slots. We take a look at previous years history for those age groups. We also look at current data to determine how many series have competitors in each division. In some cases, there are only a few series that have competitors in a given discipline/division hence the lower numbers.

Rule #2- Our target cap per venue is 160 riders per day. As you can see, we exceeded that cap in a couple of areas. We talk to all the venue TS's to determine how many riders each venue can handle. Slopestyle is the toughest for two reasons- one, its the most popular of any event and two, it takes the longest to run per rider. For those of who have been to Nationals, GS and SL are typically the fastest running events. So, we do our best to keep numbers in slope as close to 160 as possible but if the Alpine venues start pushing higher, it's usually not as critical.

Rule #3- In order to make it a true National Championship, there has to be some sort of cutoff in relation to how deep we go into the total membership across the US. To that end, we developed a sliding scale of target percentages based on the total number of competitors. That scale is as follows:
1 - 25 90-100%
25-50 75%
50-75 60%
75-100 50%
100-150 40%
150-200 30%
200+ 25%

So for example, there are 268 Breaker Boys Slopestylers across the US, our target percentage is 25%, so there are 65 slots available. You math majors out there will immediately notice that 25% of 268 is actually 67. We rounded down a little bit based on past years numbers (there were 60 slots LY)- we dont want to dramatically cut numbers unless there is a significant drop in enrollment for that division and there was room under the venue cap for 5 riders than last year. Make sense so far? Please keep in mind that these percentages are TARGETS and we have to move slots #'s up or down based on Rules 1 and 2. Also keep in mind that we cant do one set percentage across the board or we'll end up exceeding our venue caps.

So, once we start with those three rules, we then look at historical data from previous Nationals as well as numbers from the current season. We determine how many total riders are competing in each age/gender/discipline throughout the US. We also figure out how many series have competitors in each age/gender/discipline. Then we calculate the target percentages for each group. Once we get to that point, we start sorting them into daily competition groups so that the numbers try not to exceed the caps. We also have to factor in typical ability levels of the divisions within each group. In SBX, for example, the course is altered each night to reflect the next days group- so we dont want to run the Ruggie Girls with the Men's Jam's. No offense to the Men's Jams riders who cant keep up with the Ruggie Girls! ;0

Okay, so now we have target slot #'s based on percentages of total membership, competition groups sorted and a schedule. Our last step is to look through those slot numbers and clean them up based on the following factors- LY's numbers, venue caps, # of Series of qualifiers, etc. In smaller groups, we have to provide more slots to accommodate the possibility of many series sending their winners. In larger groups, if we go too deep, the competition field is diluted to much. Once we go through each group and even out any anomalies, we have our slots and competitions groups.

The last thing to consider is that we are using data as of middle of February. By mid-March, total competitors and # of regional series qualifiers will have changed so we have to build in some margin of error to accommodate the remainder of the season.

So that's how we determine our Nationals slots. Any questions?

It's a time-consuming process that's part data analysis and part SWAG. Please feel free to use this forum to comment on the process. I'd be happy to hear feedback and answer questions. Thanks for taking the time to read through all this. I hope it helps!
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Re:Comp groups and Daily schedule of events 5 years, 2 months ago #73

  • jason
Wow. I am part of this process and I cant explain it as well as you have Jon, good job. I have a headache just thinking about it now.
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Re:Comp groups and Daily schedule of events 5 years, 2 months ago #75

yes, nice cut and paste version for sure...that's Jon Casson, any questions??
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Re:Comp groups and Daily schedule of events 5 years, 1 month ago #206

  • joncasson
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Please read this if you have any questions about how field sizes were determined for USASA Nationals.
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